Bitcoin’s Rally Feels Thin As Liquidity, Not Fundamentals, Drives The Market

Digital generated image of Bitcoin sign stock market data on blue background.
There’s an old joke about predicting the markets: “It’s going to go up, down, and if it doesn’t do that, it’ll go sideways.” I’ve added my own twist: “But it will never trade from right to left.” Like all good jokes, there’s a kernel of truth in that line.
So here is a chart:
The bitcoin chart with all the ways it could go
Credit: ADVFN
This is why, as a bear, I can’t get too enthusiastic – even after the recent rally. The upside feels limited, the downside seems significant, and the range is best suited for short-term traders.
Meanwhile, the true believers are calling for $250,000:
The bitcoin chart as true believers see it
Credit: ADVFN
And why not? A 150% return certainly sounds tempting. But let’s be honest – while that’s a hefty gain, it’s not the kind of moonshot that gave bitcoin its legendary status. It’s a big ask on the upside and a relatively small slip to reach a much lower counterbalancing level. Hodlers have been right so far, and when I compare their returns to my own trading results, I can’t say I’ve done any better.